Thursday, March 05, 2009

Bullish on MGM

From a high of $96 bucks a share, MGM Mirage is now trading at $2 and change. If I had the cash to spare, I'd buy a few hundred more shares. Now, I'm not an expert (far from it since I paid $15 for my shares when I could have had them now at $2) but I'm very bullish on MGM. I guess the problems that MGM is having right now stem from the $1.2 billion it still needs to complete its CityCenter project -- the largest "privately"-financed project ever -- along with a lack of debt financing for this year and next. MGM and Dubai World (Dubai World is a sovereign wealth fund and 50% stakeholder in CityCenter) were in talks with Deutsche Bank to get the rest of their CityCenter cash but walked away from the table yesterday. I think this is a good sign. Deutsche Bank wanted crap terms (to merge the CityCenter property with one it owns next door, the Cosmopolitan -- I'm not quite sure why this was so objectionable) and apparently MGM and Dubai World aren't desperate enough yet to agree to that. MGM has said that if the situation in Vegas doesn't improve this year, they're going to default on their debt, which unless I'm missing something, means bankruptcy. That makes the situation seem pretty dire, but if it is, how can they afford to walk away from a deal with Deutsche Bank? MGM can always shop some of its properties to raise cash (it sold TI last year so I guess there's still buyers out there) and I guess that's the next step. Although Bloomberg is reporting that MGM is in talks with other banks. I think it looks bad for MGM right now, but I have confidence they'll pull through it. And if I'm right, shares at $2 is a steal.

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